THE world could soon face the nightmare of a biological war which
might kill more people than a nuclear exchange and start a series of
planet-wide plagues, according to a new study published today.
Advances in bio-technology could also create strains of deadly spores
against which there would be little or no defence. These would enable
terrorist groups to hold entire cities or even countries to ransom and
bring cheap weapons of mass destruction within the grasp of even the
poorest nations.
Professor Malcolm Dando, of the department of peace studies at
Bradford University, argues in Biological Warfare in the 21st Century
that the West is running out of time to establish an effective policy
aimed at curbing proliferation of biological agents.
A special conference of the 133 signatory states to the existing
Biological Weapons Convention is due to take place in Geneva in
September. Professor Dando fears that the self-interest of certain
powerful nations and the problems of dealing with dual-use technology
may limit its objectives.
He said last night: ''We have to capitalise on the revulsion which
biological agents engender. They are capable of being more destructive
than nuclear weapons. It is a filthy way to wage war.
''The ease with which they could be acquired brings to mind the most
likely scenario of two Third World countries using them in a conflict
which could expand quite easily well beyond their own frontiers.
''For example, an official US report in 1993 concluded that a 12.5
kiloton nuclear warhead exploding over a city might kill between 23,000
and 80,000 people. A warhead which dispensed just 100 kilogrammes of
anthrax spores over the same city could kill between one and three
million.
''A terrorist group could wreak untold havoc with biological
organisms. Fed into a city's water supply, the effects would be
catastrophic.
''It is vital that effective control over their spread and manufacture
be introduced as a matter of urgency. The continuing difficulties of
producing nuclear weapons and the increasing control of chemical weapons
could lead to much greater interest in biological arms. They are easy to
produce and easy to modify to counter any defence.''
Professor Dando said the time to clamp down on biological agents --
already in the hands of at least 10 countries in conflict-prone areas of
the world -- was now.
The one significant advantage a coherent policy would stand in the
near future was that although production was simple, testing of
organisms as weapons was relatively easy to detect. At that stage,
countries breaking any ban would be vulnerable to identification.
The United States last week proposed to spend #2.7m from 1996 on
technology to detect and counter all weapons of mass destruction. The
aim is to produce a system capable of locating and disarming nuclear,
chemical, and biological weapons worldwide by 2002.
The US military already operates a Threat Anticipation Skunkworks in
New Mexico. The top-secret ''black'' project is now believed to be
expanding its remit to analyse Third World approaches to weapons
development.
An airborne sensor which can detect aerosol emissions of chemical or
biological agents at ranges of up to 100 kilometres was deployed during
the 1991 Gulf War.
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