A NEW prediction from the Electoral Calculus has tipped Labour to win the Colchester constituency for the first time since 1945.

The constituency has exclusively elected either Conservative or Liberal Democrat candidates from 1950 onwards – but Electoral Calculus, the political forecasting website which predicts the results for general elections, has given the Tories a one in four chance of retaining the seat at the next general election.

Gazette: In power – Will Quince has been MP for Colchester since 2015, increased his share of the vote when he was re-elected four years laterIn power – Will Quince has been MP for Colchester since 2015, increased his share of the vote when he was re-elected four years later (Image: Newsquest)

Voters are expected to go to the polls at some point next year, with an election legally required to take place before January 2025.

Official figures from the most recent general election, held in December 2019, saw Colchester MP Will Quince win more than 50 per cent of the vote as 26,917 people voted Tory, with 17,494 voting Labour.

Gazette: On the up – Labour candidate Pam Cox is in poll position to take the seat of Colchester at the next election, according to pollsters Electoral CalculusOn the up – Labour candidate Pam Cox is in poll position to take the seat of Colchester at the next election, according to pollsters Electoral Calculus (Image: Newsquest)

But Electoral Calculus’s predictions for the next general election are giving Labour a 76 per cent chance of winning the Colchester seat.

The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party have been given a zero per cent chance by the pollster.

Despite the predictions, the Conservatives remain the largest single party at council level, with the party winning 19 council wards at the council elections earlier this month.

Not a single ward was gained during the election.